Actual result
R+5.2
Final polls said
R+3.2
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.1 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Village | R+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | GQR | R+2.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | R+18.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+21.0 | 15.8 | ✓ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-11-02 | 512 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 683 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1253 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 500 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-27 | 637 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 690 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 910 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-23 | 615 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-22 | 500 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-22 | 625 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2008-10-18 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-13 | 718 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 547 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-09 | 531 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-30 | 561 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 677 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-20 | 600 | R+18.0 | 13 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-17 | 503 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-16 | 500 | R+11.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-15 | 684 | R+16.0 | 11 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-10 | 800 | R+21.0 | 16 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-10 | 506 | R+18.0 | 13 |