Actual result
D+45.3
Final polls said
D+22.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+30.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+41.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+31.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+30.1 | 15.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+22.0 | 23.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 337 | D+22.0 | 23 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 500 | D+41.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-09 | 600 | D+31.0 | 14 |