Actual result
D+25.1
Final polls said
D+23.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Shares Corp. | D+24.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+22.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+22.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Ten | D+29.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+6.0 | 19.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-01 | 500 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 783 | D+19.0 | 6 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 586 | D+29.0 | 4 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2008-10-17 | 500 | D+24.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 500 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-17 | 500 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 628 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | D+6.0 | 19 |