Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
R+1.7
14 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | Big Village | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+2.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | Big Ten | D+9.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 585 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 603 | R+5.2 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2634 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-30 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 900 | EVEN | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-10-27 | 606 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 795 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2008-10-23 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-21 | 631 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 586 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 473 | R+11.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-18 | 1411 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 450 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-05 | 667 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 687 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-17 | 500 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 612 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-09-15 | 600 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-15 | 890 | R+5.0 | 6 |