Actual result
R+15.0
Final polls said
R+14.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+13.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+13.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+17.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+21.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+32.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 626 | R+21.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 499 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-21 | 613 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 500 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-05 | 500 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 666 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-18 | 500 | R+20.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-09 | 600 | R+32.0 | 17 |