Actual result
D+25.4
Final polls said
D+25.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+26.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+25.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+26.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+23.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+15.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 709 | D+25.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-20 | 500 | D+23.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-18 | 600 | D+15.0 | 10 |