Actual result
D+17.3
Final polls said
D+15.6
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mellman Group | D+17.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+15.8 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Market Decisions Research | D+19.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Digital Research | D+21.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+12.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | American Research Group | D+10.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-01 | 500 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-30 | 674 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 486 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-19 | 642 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Market Decisions Research | 2008-10-19 | 425 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2008-10-18 | 443 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2008-10-15 | 400 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-02 | 500 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-10-01 | 600 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 675 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-17 | 500 | D+4.0 | 13 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-09 | 600 | D+10.0 | 7 |