Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+0.3
18 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.2
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Research Group | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+1.2 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Big Village | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 1000 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 585 | EVEN | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 674 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 602 | D+1.7 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1343 | EVEN | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-29 | 814 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | EVEN | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 672 | EVEN | 0 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 684 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 825 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | D+2.5 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-22 | 625 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-19 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 717 | EVEN | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-18 | 600 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-15 | 700 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-13 | 763 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-12 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-11 | 1009 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 692 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 546 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-05 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-05 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-29 | 744 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-23 | 705 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-13 | 600 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-11 | 700 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 604 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-08 | 940 | R+4.0 | 4 |