Actual result
R+2.3
Final polls said
R+2.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | Montana State University Billings | D+4.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | Big Village | R+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2734 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-29 | 500 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 368 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 625 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2008-10-18 | 403 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-07 | 600 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-01 | 500 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-22 | 737 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-08 | 700 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-08 | 600 | R+2.0 | 0 |