Actual result
D+12.5
Final polls said
D+5.1
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GfK Group | D+12.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+11.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+10.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Village | D+7.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+5.2 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+5.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+5.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Magellan Strategies | D+3.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Grove Insight | D+2.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 12.5 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 586 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 600 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 601 | D+7.8 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1243 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-27 | 700 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-25 | 450 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 494 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 684 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 628 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-20 | 700 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 670 | R+8.0 | 20 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-19 | 690 | EVEN | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-16 | 700 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-13 | 506 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 656 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2008-10-10 | 602 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-08 | 625 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-06 | 468 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-02 | 700 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-30 | 437 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-29 | 684 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-28 | 600 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-09-19 | 600 | R+1.0 | 13 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-09-16 | 600 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-13 | 600 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-11 | 700 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 572 | R+7.0 | 19 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-10 | 518 | R+1.0 | 13 |