Actual result
R+31.3
Final polls said
R+26.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+31.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+29.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+28.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SoonerPoll.com | R+27.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+27.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+19.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 594 | R+29.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 491 | R+19.0 | 12 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-25 | 720 | R+27.0 | 4 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-19 | 763 | R+32.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 561 | R+24.0 | 7 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-11 | 813 | R+31.0 | 0 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-04 | 801 | R+37.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 656 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-27 | 904 | R+41.0 | 10 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-21 | 667 | R+40.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-17 | 600 | R+27.0 | 4 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-14 | 859 | R+42.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-11 | 500 | R+31.0 | 0 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-07 | 894 | R+36.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 652 | R+33.0 | 2 |