Actual result
D+27.8
Final polls said
D+21.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+26.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+22.7 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+21.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+19.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quest Research Group | D+14.0 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+13.0 | 14.8 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 365 | D+21.0 | 7 |
| Quest Research Group | 2008-09-21 | 742 | D+14.0 | 14 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2008-09-15 | 652 | D+13.0 | 15 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-13 | 500 | D+19.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-12 | 600 | D+26.0 | 2 |