Actual result
D+17.2
Final polls said
D+15.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+16.5 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elway Research | D+19.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+12.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+6.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 663 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2008-10-29 | 400 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-26 | 630 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 797 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2008-10-22 | 600 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| Elway Research | 2008-10-18 | 405 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 544 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-02 | 700 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 682 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-17 | 600 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-10 | 500 | D+2.0 | 15 |
| Elway Research | 2008-09-07 | 225 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 658 | D+4.0 | 13 |