Actual result
R+13.1
Final polls said
R+9.2
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+13.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Big Village | R+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+11.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | R+10.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+9.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Orion Strategies | R+5.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mark Blankenship Enterprises | R+5.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Rainmaker Media Group | R+1.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 600 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 2128 | R+13.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 404 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Orion Strategies | 2008-10-20 | 600 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-20 | 674 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-20 | 500 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-16 | 1223 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-16 | 625 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Rainmaker Media Group | 2008-10-14 | 600 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-13 | 522 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-06 | 600 | D+8.0 | 21 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-24 | 500 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-22 | 694 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Mark Blankenship Enterprises | 2008-09-07 | 432 | R+5.0 | 8 |