Actual result
R+26.8
Final polls said
R+30.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+28.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+29.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+29.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+33.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 650 | R+33.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 452 | R+28.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-08 | 697 | R+31.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-22 | 500 | R+29.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-16 | 655 | R+35.0 | 8 |