Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+4.7
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mellman Group | R+2.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | InsiderAdvantage | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Big Village | R+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-11-30 | 744 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-29 | 1276 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-11-23 | 523 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-22 | 871 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-11-22 | 600 | R+2.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-18 | 700 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-11-02 | 512 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 683 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1253 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-30 | 600 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 500 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-27 | 637 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 910 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 690 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-23 | 615 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-22 | 625 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-22 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2008-10-18 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 547 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-09 | 531 | EVEN | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 677 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-09-26 | 600 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-16 | 500 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-15 | 684 | R+17.0 | 14 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-09-10 | 800 | R+19.0 | 16 |