Actual result
D+39.3
Final polls said
D+23.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+27.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+31.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+27.1 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+23.0 | 16.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 783 | D+23.0 | 16 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 500 | D+31.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-17 | 500 | D+24.0 | 15 |