Actual result
R+22.8
Final polls said
R+15.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+21.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+20.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Market Decisions Research | R+17.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+16.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+14.8 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Digital Research | R+12.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mellman Group | R+8.0 | 14.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-01 | 500 | R+16.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-30 | 674 | R+14.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 486 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-19 | 642 | R+11.0 | 12 |
| Market Decisions Research | 2008-10-19 | 425 | R+17.0 | 6 |
| Digital Research | 2008-10-18 | 443 | R+12.0 | 11 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2008-10-15 | 400 | R+21.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-02 | 500 | R+10.0 | 13 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-10-01 | 600 | R+8.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 675 | R+16.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-17 | 500 | R+13.0 | 10 |