Actual result
D+45.8
Final polls said
D+36.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+37.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+45.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+37.8 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+33.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+28.0 | 17.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2734 | D+45.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 368 | D+28.0 | 18 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-08 | 700 | D+33.0 | 13 |