Actual result
D+6.3
Final polls said
D+8.2
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | GfK Group | D+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+8.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | FTI Consulting | D+9.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+3.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | American Research Group | D+12.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+14.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-11-01 | 816 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 700 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 682 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-28 | 687 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-28 | 600 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 516 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-25 | 687 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 600 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-23 | 700 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-21 | 525 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-20 | 725 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-07 | 600 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 647 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-01 | 700 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2008-09-27 | 823 | D+14.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 700 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-09-22 | 600 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-20 | 403 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-09-18 | 475 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-14 | 600 | D+12.0 | 6 |