Actual result
D+22.7
Final polls said
D+16.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+21.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+19.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+17.6 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Grove Insight | D+16.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+14.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-30 | 664 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 1537 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2008-10-29 | 1002 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 457 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 700 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 568 | D+18.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-01 | 500 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2008-10-01 | 659 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-29 | 698 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-18 | 1037 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-15 | 671 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-09-12 | 600 | D+16.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-08 | 700 | D+7.0 | 16 |