New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 New Mexico Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 17 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+17.0 — a 100% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
New Mexico Senator Trounces Trump With Spanish Insult After 'New America' IdeaOye, President Donald Trump. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) has a word for you now that you're proposing to rename New Mexico as New America. "It's New Mexico, always has been and always will be," Luján wrote in a recent X post. "Just like how you'll always be a…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
Luján Holds Big Lead in New Mexico Senate RaceA new Albuquerque Journal poll in New Mexico finds Ben Ray Luján (D) leading Larry Marker (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 38%. New Mexico Senate Race Ben Ray Luján (D) 53% Larry Marker (R) 38% Albuquerque Journal poll
Politicalwire.com · September 1, 2026
Treasury Sec. Forgets Own Job in Rush to Dodge Democrat’s QuestionsTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent became so engrossed Wednesday in providing non-answers about the president’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that he accidentally dodged a question about his own employment.Bessent’s appearance before the Senate Finance…
The New Republic · June 3, 2026
Right-to-Repair Laws Gain Political Momentum Across America"California, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Oregon and Washington have all passed comprehensive right-to-repair regulations," reports CNBC, "covering everything from consumer electronics and farm equipment to wheelchairs and automobiles." And …
Slashdot.org · April 27, 2026
Walmart Announces Digital Price Labels for Every Store in the U.S. By the End of 2026Walmart is "rolling out digital price tags to replace the old paper ones," reports CNBC, planning to implement them in all U.S. stores by the end of the year: Amanda Bailey, a team leader in electronics who works at a Walmart in West Chester, Ohio, estimate…
Slashdot.org · March 23, 2026
- Luján Holds Big Lead in New Mexico Senate Race
A new Albuquerque Journal poll in New Mexico finds Ben Ray Luján (D) leading Larry Marker (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 38%. New Mexico Senate Race Ben Ray Luján (D) 53% Larry Marker (R) 38% Albuquerque Journal poll
Politicalwire.com · September 1, 2026 - IN-DEPTH: 'We Had to Take Action': New Mexico Referendum Project Aims to Rescind Six Progressive Laws Using Rights Granted in State Constitution
A grassroots movement is challenging six laws passed in the New Mexico state legislature that its organizers say threaten their communities, infringe upon parental rights, and compromise the election process. “People are starting to realize that this is not t…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2023 - Court ruling sought on NM abortion law (Filing says legislative repeal of 1969 law leaves 1963 law in place)
A petition filed last week in the Fifth Judicial District for Chaves County in Roswell calls for a return to a 1963 law outlawing abortion. State Sen. David Gallegos, R-Eunice, Larry Marker of Roswell, who’s recently filed as a write-in candidate for the offi…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2022
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Mexico Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ben Ray Luján (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+17.0.
What do the polls say in the New Mexico Senate race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Research & Polling Inc. (2026-08-28), showed D+15.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+17.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race?
Ben Ray Luján is the Democratic candidate; Larry Marker is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Mexico Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New Mexico Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Ben Ray Luján's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Mexico Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.