New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 New Mexico Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 16 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' published win probability for each party since September 25, when the current model began — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+16.1 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Democrat Sen. Ben Ray Lujan Wins Re-Election in New MexicoSen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) has won re-election in the state of New Mexico, defeating Republican challenger Larry Marker. The post Democrat Sen. Ben Ray Luján Wins Re-Election in New Mexico appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
New Mexico Senator Trounces Trump With Spanish Insult After 'New America' IdeaOye, President Donald Trump. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) has a word for you now that you're proposing to rename New Mexico as New America. "It's New Mexico, always has been and always will be," Luján wrote in a recent X post. "Just like how you'll always be a…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
Luján Holds Big Lead in New Mexico Senate RaceA new Albuquerque Journal poll in New Mexico finds Ben Ray Luján (D) leading Larry Marker (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 38%. New Mexico Senate Race Ben Ray Luján (D) 53% Larry Marker (R) 38% Albuquerque Journal poll
Politicalwire.com · September 1, 2026
Treasury Sec. Forgets Own Job in Rush to Dodge Democrat’s QuestionsTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent became so engrossed Wednesday in providing non-answers about the president’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that he accidentally dodged a question about his own employment.Bessent’s appearance before the Senate Finance…
The New Republic · June 3, 2026
Right-to-Repair Laws Gain Political Momentum Across America"California, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Oregon and Washington have all passed comprehensive right-to-repair regulations," reports CNBC, "covering everything from consumer electronics and farm equipment to wheelchairs and automobiles." And …
Slashdot.org · April 27, 2026
- Democrat Sen. Ben Ray Lujan Wins Re-Election in New Mexico
Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) has won re-election in the state of New Mexico, defeating Republican challenger Larry Marker. The post Democrat Sen. Ben Ray Luján Wins Re-Election in New Mexico appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026 - Luján Holds Big Lead in New Mexico Senate Race
A new Albuquerque Journal poll in New Mexico finds Ben Ray Luján (D) leading Larry Marker (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 38%. New Mexico Senate Race Ben Ray Luján (D) 53% Larry Marker (R) 38% Albuquerque Journal poll
Politicalwire.com · September 1, 2026 - IN-DEPTH: 'We Had to Take Action': New Mexico Referendum Project Aims to Rescind Six Progressive Laws Using Rights Granted in State Constitution
A grassroots movement is challenging six laws passed in the New Mexico state legislature that its organizers say threaten their communities, infringe upon parental rights, and compromise the election process. “People are starting to realize that this is not t…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2023 - Court ruling sought on NM abortion law (Filing says legislative repeal of 1969 law leaves 1963 law in place)
A petition filed last week in the Fifth Judicial District for Chaves County in Roswell calls for a return to a 1963 law outlawing abortion. State Sen. David Gallegos, R-Eunice, Larry Marker of Roswell, who’s recently filed as a write-in candidate for the offi…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2022
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
4 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Mexico Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ben Ray Luján (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+16.1.
What do the polls say in the New Mexico Senate race?
There are 4 polls of this race; today's forecast uses the 3 from the last 61 days. The most recent, from Research Co. (2026-11-02), showed D+19.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+16.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race?
Ben Ray Luján is the Democratic candidate; Larry Marker is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Mexico Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Mexico Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.