New Mexico Governor
Deb Haaland (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 New Mexico Governor race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 7 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+7.1 — a 93% Democratic win.
Latest news
New Mexico Governor Hopeful Deb Haaland Rages at ICE, Omits Illegal Alien’s Criminal History“I will not stay silent while ICE terrorizes our communities.” The post New Mexico Governor Hopeful Deb Haaland Rages at ICE, Omits Illegal Alien’s Criminal History first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Legalinsurrection.com · August 27, 2026
Former interior secretary Deb Haaland talks about her new memoir, 'A Voice Like Mine'NPR's A Martínez speaks with former interior secretary and Democratic congresswoman from New Mexico, Deb Haaland, about her new memoir "A Voice Like Mine."
NPR · July 8, 2026- Haaland endorses Garcia Richard after Toulouse Oliver exit (NM Dem Lt. Governor race)
Deb Haaland is backing fellow far-leftist, Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard, for lieutenant governor, ending days of jockeying among New Mexico Democrats after Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver abruptly suspended her campaign just weeks afte…
Freerepublic.com · June 27, 2026 
Doug Burgum Puts Private Profits Over Public Lands and Tribal RightsWhen the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee held confirmation hearings for current Department of Interior head Doug Burgum, he made it quite clear that he viewed public lands, lands belonging to the American public, as an asset on “America’s balanc…
Common Dreams · June 12, 2026- Deb Haaland Wins Nomination in New Mexico Governor’s Race - The New York Times
Deb Haaland Wins Nomination in New Mexico Governor’s RaceThe New York Times New Mexico Governor Primary Election 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Live Results: New Mexico midterm primariesPBS Gregg Hull winner of Republican nomination for New Mexico governorKRQE New…
Slashdot.org · June 3, 2026
- Miyagishima (Onetime Dem) Drops Out of Governor’s Race, endorses Hull (Republican)
Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima, who ran for governor as a Democrat and then as an independent, is endorsing Republican Gregg Hull. Miyagishima ended his bid for New Mexico governor after weighing a Supreme Court appeal to stay on the ballot. Miyagish…
Freerepublic.com · July 17, 2026 - Deb Haaland Wins Nomination in New Mexico Governor’s Race - The New York Times
Deb Haaland Wins Nomination in New Mexico Governor’s RaceThe New York Times New Mexico Governor Primary Election 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Live Results: New Mexico midterm primariesPBS Gregg Hull winner of Republican nomination for New Mexico governorKRQE New…
Slashdot.org · June 3, 2026 - Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland wins Democratic nomination in New Mexico governor’s race - NBC News
Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland wins Democratic nomination in New Mexico governor’s raceNBC News New Mexico Governor Primary Election 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Live Results: New Mexico midterm primariesPBS Primary night live blog: Most primaries settled…
Slashdot.org · June 3, 2026 
Gregg Hull wins New Mexico GOP gubernatorial primary, setting up bid to flip governor’s officeNew Mexico's GOP gubernatorial primary produced a nominee Tuesday as Republicans aim to reclaim the governor's office for the first time since 2019.
Fox News · June 3, 2026- Tips for those headed to Trump rally (New Mexico)
Rio Rancho mayor says "zero tolerance" for anyone who displays violence or aggression RIO RANCHO, N.M. We're only hours away from the gates opening at the Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho. KOAT spoke with Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull about what people sho…
Freerepublic.com · September 16, 2019
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Mexico Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Deb Haaland (D), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+7.1.
What do the polls say in the New Mexico Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from SurveyUSA (2026-09-30), showed D+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+7.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Mexico Governor race?
Deb Haaland is the Democratic candidate; Gregg Hull is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Mexico Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New Mexico Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Deb Haaland's (D) lead has widened to 93%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Mexico Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.