Actual result
R+17.5
Final polls said
R+13.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+16.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+16.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+15.7 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+20.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | SoonerPoll.com | R+10.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 594 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 491 | R+11.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-25 | 500 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-25 | 720 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-19 | 763 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 561 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-11 | 813 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-10-04 | 801 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 656 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-27 | 904 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-21 | 667 | R+22.0 | 5 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-14 | 859 | R+27.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-11 | 500 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2008-09-07 | 894 | R+28.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 652 | R+22.0 | 5 |