Actual result
D+31.3
Final polls said
D+28.3
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+31.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+31.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | FTI Consulting | D+29.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | D+34.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+28.6 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Village | D+28.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+35.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+26.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | GfK Group | D+26.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+25.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+25.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | SurveyUSA | D+24.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+24.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1557 | D+26.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-31 | 672 | D+24.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-29 | 625 | D+31.0 | 0 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2008-10-26 | 671 | D+31.0 | 0 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 404 | D+29.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 772 | D+25.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 721 | D+28.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 671 | D+31.0 | 0 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2008-10-24 | 784 | D+30.0 | 1 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 601 | D+26.0 | 5 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2008-10-23 | 614 | D+35.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-22 | 1231 | D+28.0 | 3 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 2008-10-21 | 817 | D+34.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-20 | 625 | D+25.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 652 | D+24.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-16 | 700 | D+25.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-06 | 917 | D+27.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 666 | D+30.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-30 | 625 | D+26.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-25 | 700 | D+26.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-20 | 716 | D+23.0 | 8 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2008-09-20 | 698 | D+30.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-19 | 625 | D+33.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-13 | 732 | D+23.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-13 | 1090 | D+24.0 | 7 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2008-09-12 | 500 | D+24.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 717 | D+21.0 | 10 |