← all past elections
Toss-up · 2008 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2008 Virginia Senate race, Mark R. Warner (D) won by about 31 points.
Actual result
D+31.3
Final polls said
D+28.3
16 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+31.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+31.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | FTI Consulting | D+29.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | D+34.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | D+28.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+35.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+26.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | GfK Group | D+26.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+25.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+25.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyUSA | D+24.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+24.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2008-11-015
SurveyUSA2008-10-317
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2008-10-290
ABC News/The Washington Post2008-10-260
FTI Consulting2008-10-252
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 Virginia Senate race?
Mark R. Warner (D) won, by about 31.3 points (D+31.3).
When was the 2008 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.