Actual result
D+39.2
Final polls said
D+17.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+30.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+21.0 | 18.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Neighborhood Research and Media | D+15.0 | 24.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+13.6 | 25.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Basswood Research | D+7.0 | 32.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+10.0 | 49.2 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2009-11-01 | 606 | D+30.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-31 | 1754 | D+21.0 | 18 |
| Siena College | 2009-10-28 | 704 | D+16.0 | 23 |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | 2009-10-25 | 442 | D+15.0 | 24 |
| Basswood Research | 2009-10-24 | 300 | D+7.0 | 32 |
| Siena College | 2009-10-12 | 617 | D+4.0 | 35 |
| Siena College | 2009-09-28 | 622 | R+7.0 | 46 |
| Basswood Research | 2009-09-17 | 300 | R+3.0 | 42 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2009-09-08 | 300 | R+10.0 | 49 |