Actual result
R+21.4
Final polls said
R+14.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+18.3 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Big Village | R+26.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.3 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+13.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Dittman Research | R+12.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+11.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 1539 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Dittman Research | 2010-10-25 | 421 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| Dittman Research | 2010-10-25 | 356 | R+10.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 946 | R+26.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-13 | 500 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 1678 | R+9.0 | 12 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 927 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2010-09-25 | 573 | R+18.3 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-19 | 500 | R+20.0 | 1 |