Actual result
R+10.1
Final polls said
R+7.6
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Landmark Communications | R+6.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+5.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-27 | 625 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-27 | 1686 | R+6.9 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-10-24 | 2119 | R+5.8 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-24 | 750 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 601 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-19 | 3277 | R+8.1 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-10-18 | 507 | R+5.5 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-10-10 | 522 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-06 | 750 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-09-27 | 412 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-21 | 500 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-09-16 | 632 | EVEN | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-14 | 625 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-11 | 599 | R+11.0 | 1 |