Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+5.0
8 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | Big Village | R+2.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Market Shares Corp. | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | D+6.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+7.3 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | R+8.6 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | We Ask America | R+9.5 | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | SurveyUSA | R+13.0 | 13.8 | ✗ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 814 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 660 | R+7.3 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2010-10-20 | 700 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-20 | 750 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-19 | 625 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-15 | 557 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-12 | 750 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2010-10-05 | 758 | R+8.6 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-04 | 500 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-09-30 | 500 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 828 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2010-09-26 | 600 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | R+10.0 | 11 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-09-25 | 604 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-25 | 470 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| We Ask America | 2010-09-13 | 1330 | R+9.5 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-12 | 750 | R+13.0 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-12 | 750 | R+13.0 | 14 |