VotePredictor
past elections

Massachusetts Governor

Deval Patrick (D) vs Charles D. Baker (R)

Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+5.2
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Suffolk UniversityD+7.00.6
2Western New England University Polling InstituteD+5.01.4
3University of New Hampshire Survey CenterD+4.02.4
4VotePredictorD+3.43.1
5Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)D+2.04.4
6Public Opinion StrategiesR+7.013.4

Polls (13)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-27750D+2.04
Western New England University Polling Institute2010-10-26361D+5.01
Suffolk University2010-10-26500D+7.01
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2010-10-19519D+4.02
Western New England University Polling Institute2010-10-18400D+8.02
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-16750D+5.01
Public Opinion Strategies2010-10-12800R+7.013
Suffolk University2010-10-11500D+7.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-28750D+5.01
Western New England University Polling Institute2010-09-21402D+6.00
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2010-09-19468D+1.05
Suffolk University2010-09-18500D+7.01
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-15500D+3.03