Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+5.2
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+7.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2010-10-26 | 361 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-26 | 500 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-19 | 519 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 750 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-12 | 800 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-11 | 500 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-28 | 750 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2010-09-21 | 402 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-09-19 | 468 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-09-18 | 500 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |