Actual result
D+14.5
Final polls said
D+12.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+14.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | OpinionWorks | D+14.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+10.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+10.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+5.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-24 | 750 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2010-10-21 | 1434 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| OpinionWorks | 2010-10-17 | 800 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2010-10-13 | 816 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-04 | 750 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2010-09-24 | 730 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 750 | D+3.0 | 11 |