Actual result
R+26.7
Final polls said
R+12.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+16.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Maine People's Resource Center | R+15.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+15.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Digital Research | R+12.0 | 14.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+11.2 | 15.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Frederick Polls | R+5.0 | 21.7 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2010-10-29 | 546 | R+15.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-27 | 1812 | R+16.0 | 11 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+15.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-26 | 500 | R+14.0 | 13 |
| Frederick Polls | 2010-10-16 | 400 | R+5.0 | 22 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-15 | 600 | R+12.0 | 15 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2010-10-13 | 501 | R+4.9 | 22 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-12 | 500 | R+3.0 | 24 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-10 | 605 | R+5.0 | 22 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-27 | 405 | D+1.0 | 28 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-20 | 500 | R+18.0 | 9 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-13 | 603 | R+13.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-04 | 1468 | R+14.0 | 13 |