Actual result
R+18.2
Final polls said
R+17.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | R+18.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | R+18.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+17.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+20.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+21.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rossman Group | R+14.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Baydoun Consulting | R+13.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-10-25 | 600 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Glengariff Group | 2010-10-25 | 600 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Rossman Group | 2010-10-18 | 400 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-17 | 500 | R+20.0 | 2 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2010-10-07 | 2282 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-10-05 | 600 | R+20.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-20 | 500 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-18 | 497 | R+21.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-09-11 | 600 | R+24.0 | 6 |
| Glengariff Group | 2010-09-07 | 600 | R+20.3 | 2 |