Actual result
D+7.6
Final polls said
D+7.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+7.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+10.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-29 | 885 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-28 | 1308 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-21 | 744 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-10 | 750 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-09 | 705 | D+13.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2010-10-04 | 600 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-09-26 | 470 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2010-09-24 | 800 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 500 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-11 | 1959 | D+12.0 | 4 |