Actual result
R+6.7
Final polls said
R+7.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | GQR | R+1.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2010-10-27 | 1003 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-24 | 750 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2010-10-22 | 603 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-22 | 800 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-13 | 647 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-10 | 750 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-04 | 900 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2010-10-02 | 602 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2010-09-29 | 941 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-29 | 500 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-25 | 1307 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2010-09-13 | 600 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-12 | 800 | R+11.0 | 4 |