Actual result
D+1.5
Final polls said
D+1.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.5 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elway Research | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Riley Research Associates | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | DHM Research | D+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Grove Insight | D+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 8 | ccAdvertising | R+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | 2010-10-28 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-25 | 580 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-25 | 750 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| DHM Research | 2010-10-24 | 500 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-10-23 | 500 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Elway Research | 2010-10-18 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-16 | 1229 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-13 | 652 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-13 | 2237 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-10 | 750 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-13 | 562 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-08 | 750 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2010-09-04 | 392 | D+1.0 | 1 |