Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
D+0.2
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+4.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quest Research Group | R+3.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fleming & Associates | D+0.7 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 13.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+4.8 | 15.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+15.3 | 25.8 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quest Research Group | 2010-10-25 | 523 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2010-10-23 | 500 | D+0.7 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-21 | 750 | D+3.0 | 14 |
| Quest Research Group | 2010-10-05 | 492 | D+15.0 | 26 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-04 | 750 | D+8.0 | 19 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2010-09-28 | 565 | D+15.3 | 26 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2010-09-24 | 500 | D+14.2 | 25 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-16 | 500 | D+7.0 | 18 |
| Quest Research Group | 2010-09-16 | 495 | D+23.0 | 34 |