Actual result
R+38.4
Final polls said
R+27.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+32.8 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+22.8 | 15.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+22.0 | 16.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 442 | R+22.0 | 16 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2010-09-25 | 573 | R+32.8 | 6 |