Actual result
R+19.6
Final polls said
R+15.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+21.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.3 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hendrix College | R+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | R+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2010-10-14 | 446 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2010-10-13 | 400 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-11 | 442 | R+21.3 | 2 |