VotePredictor
past elections

California House

Loraine Goodwin (D) vs Jeff Denham (R)

Actual result
R+29.4
Final polls said
R+33.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.5
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+29.50.1
2SurveyUSAR+33.03.6

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
SurveyUSA2010-09-12645R+33.04