Actual result
R+4.3
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSB Research | R+4.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.9 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+23.4 | 19.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 2010-10-20 | 400 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-01 | 442 | R+23.4 | 19 |