Actual result
R+11.1
Final polls said
R+5.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+12.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.8 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | EVEN | 11.1 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-01 | 442 | R+12.4 | 1 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-26 | 391 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-09-07 | 400 | EVEN | 11 |