Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | MRG Research | R+2.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | National Research | R+4.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-25 | 571 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| National Research | 2010-10-17 | 300 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-04 | 411 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| National Research | 2010-09-27 | 300 | EVEN | 4 |