Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
R+4.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Penta | D+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | MRG Research | R+8.0 | 15.1 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-30 | 911 | R+8.0 | 15 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-25 | 595 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Penta | 2010-10-05 | 424 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-04 | 481 | R+6.0 | 13 |
| Penta | 2010-09-20 | 568 | D+13.0 | 6 |