Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+12.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+17.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | D+17.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+18.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | D+12.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+11.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+10.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | WPA Intelligence | D+4.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-26 | 1171 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2010-10-23 | 797 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-10 | 790 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2010-09-30 | 801 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2010-09-27 | 300 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | 2010-09-23 | 729 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-20 | 442 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-17 | 400 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-11 | 958 | D+11.0 | 5 |