Actual result
R+12.3
Final polls said
R+12.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSB Research | R+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | National Research | R+16.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+27.1 | 14.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 2010-10-18 | 399 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-16 | 830 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-30 | 442 | R+27.1 | 15 |
| National Research | 2010-09-29 | 300 | R+16.0 | 4 |