Actual result
R+19.3
Final polls said
R+8.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+17.2 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+10.2 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+10.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | EMC Research | D+2.0 | 21.3 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-30 | 442 | R+17.2 | 2 |
| EMC Research | 2010-09-22 | 400 | D+2.0 | 21 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2010-09-22 | 400 | R+10.0 | 9 |