Actual result
R+5.4
Final polls said
R+9.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+13.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Landmark Communications | R+13.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Grove Insight | D+12.0 | 17.4 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-26 | 442 | R+13.4 | 8 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-20 | 400 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-19 | 763 | R+16.0 | 11 |
| Mellman Group | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| American Viewpoint | 2010-09-26 | 300 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-14 | 400 | D+12.0 | 17 |