Actual result
D+4.3
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+8.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.8 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+9.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | D+12.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 2010-10-20 | 404 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-04 | 500 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-10-03 | 400 | D+8.0 | 4 |