VotePredictor
past elections

Illinois House

Daniel J. Seals (D) vs Robert Dold (R)

Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
R+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+3.51.3
2We Ask AmericaR+8.05.8
3ccAdvertisingR+9.47.2
4PSB ResearchD+12.014.2

Polls (4)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
We Ask America2010-10-31861R+8.06
We Ask America2010-10-151148R+11.09
PSB Research2010-10-04405D+12.014
ccAdvertising2010-10-02442R+9.47