Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
R+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | R+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+9.4 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | D+12.0 | 14.2 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2010-10-31 | 861 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| We Ask America | 2010-10-15 | 1148 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 405 | D+12.0 | 14 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-02 | 442 | R+9.4 | 7 |